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In this lowdown in the APC presidential conventional slated for June 6-8, TheCable projects that Buhari’s choice out of the 23 contestants will be one of these hopefuls.
WHY? Having been Buhari’s No 2 since 2015, Osinbajo would consider himself the best bet for the job and has been campaigning on the basis of consolidating the legacy (“continuity”). He was acting president on a number of occasions and many believe he did commendably well in taking key decisions that got the government machine moving. He cuts the picture of a modern, forward-looking and confident leader. Reported attempts to get Buhari to drop him before the 2019 elections failed – somewhat an indication of the president’s trust in him.
WHY NOT? While acting as president in 2017 when Buhari was seriously ill, Osinbajo took a number of decisions that appeared to question his loyalty to his boss, especially by replacing the president’s nominees with his own. The final straw, some insist, was the removal of Lawal Daura as the DG of the Department of State Services (DSS) in August 2018 while Buhari was abroad. That was the last time Buhari officially transferred power to him before travelling abroad.
ANOINTING RATING
Convergence between Buhari and governors: **
Connection with masses/victory chances: ***
Counterweight to Atiku: **
Continuity factor: ****
BOLA AHMED TINUBU
WHY? It is rumoured loudly in the APC that when the party was about to be formed ahead of the 2015 elections, promises were made to Tinubu that he would be first in line of succession after Buhari’s tenure. Tinubu was the strongest politician from the south-west. His coming on board the Buhari train helped change the voting pattern: in all previous elections, Buhari did not score 25 percent in any south-west state. In 2015, if the south-west had voted the same way they voted in 2011, Buhari would not have defeated Jonathan. In fact, Jonathan would have been re-elected by about a margin of about 500,000 votes. Tinubu’s supporters believe that Buhari owes him one.
WHY NOT? Having failed to pick him as his running in 2015 because he did not want a Muslim-Muslim ticket given the religious sensitivity in parts of Nigeria, Buhari is unlikely to push for a Tinubu candidate because it would still be politically delicate. There is no strong northern Christian to balance the ticket and a Muslim-Muslim ticket is a risky venture at the moment, especially as the PDP is not likely to go the same way. Moreover, some people are uncomfortable with Tinubu’s perceived baggage.
ANOINTING RATING
Convergence between Buhari and governors: **
Connection with masses/victory chances: ***
Counterweight to Atiku: ****
Continuity factor: *
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